On 6 June, the NBA Finals will get underway to decide this season’s champions. The Dallas Mavericks managed to quash an upstart Minnesota Timberwolves in five games to meet the imperious Boston Celtics on the league’s biggest stage of all.
From the start of the playoffs, the Celtics have been the pick for many, having dominated in the regular season and through the postseason to look primed for championship number 18. However, it’s never as simple as the statistically best team winning it all in the NBA, so plenty of fans are wondering if the Celtics could actually win the NBA Finals this year.
Cutting a menacing silhouette for the NBA Finals
On paper, the Boston Celtics are the best team in the NBA and have continued to prove as much throughout the playoffs. They stormed to the top of the overall standings with a 64-18 record. Their .780 win percentage wasn’t even close to not landing them atop the NBA, with .695 from the Oklahoma City Thunder being the next best.
Their 37-4 home record made TD Garden the most feared fortress in the NBA, and while their road record was weaker at 27-14, it was only outdone by the Western Conference’s seventh-ranked team, the New Orleans Pelicans (28-14 on the road).
Roll into the playoffs, and the best that any of the teams could muster was one win. Against the Miami Heat in Round 1, the Celtics strolled to a 4-1 triumph, which the Celts repeated in the Conference Semifinals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. In both series, it was Game 2 (at home) that gave the opposing team any hope of an upset.
On to the Conference Finals to face the Indiana Pacers, and Boston had shrugged off the second-game slump that caused slight blips in the playoffs. The Celtics triumphed in overtime, won handsomely in Game 2, and then edged the final two games in Indiana by three points to earn a hard-fought place in the NBA Finals with a sweep.
With all of this evidence stacked up, it’s easy to see why so many fans consider the Boston Celtics to be the clear favorites. This is reflected in the NBA Finals betting markets. Outright, the Celtics rock up at -227 to take the trophy, while the Mavs aren’t completely discounted but are certainly the underdogs at +180.
The Celtics also have the NBA Finals MVP frontrunner at +100. Jayson Tatum is expected to help guide his team to the title and his own MVP honors, but if recent history is anything to go by, Jaylen Brown – who is currently third-favorite at +400 – might have the edge. Over the last couple of seasons, the conference MVP has landed the Finals MVP crown, which Brown beat Tatum to by a single vote. Here’s how the NBA Finals MVP is determined.
How the Mavericks square up to the Celtics
During the last two seasons, the Mavericks have failed to claim one win over the Celtics, and in most games, the final score wasn’t even close. In 2022/23, the Celtics won the two games by 13-point and 29-point margins. This season, the wins were by nine points and 28 points.
The playoffs always turn up the heat, but recent scores suggest that the Celtics and head coach Joe Mazzulla know exactly how to carve up the Mavs. Further enforcing Boston as the favorite is the sheer depth of talent that can be called up. Tatum and Brown have averaged 25 points or more throughout the postseason.
Just behind them, you’ve got the soon-to-return Kristaps Porziņģis, according to ESPN, and his 12.3 average in the first four games of the playoffs, along with Jrue Holiday on 12.7 and Derrick White on 17.8. Veteran Al Horford has also been putting in a good knock for points at 9.9, but he’s more relied upon for his defensive game and 7.3 rebounds per game.
The Mavs boast their own one-two threat in Kyrie Irving – who will certainly be public enemy number one when Boston hosts games – and the mighty Luka Dončić. The 6’7’’ Slovenian is the main reason for doubting the Celts’ championship credentials, leading his team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals throughout the postseason with numbers in three of those categories that outdo Boston’s best.
The Celtics are the easy picks as the NBA Finals favorites and look to have all the tools they need to beat the fifth seed of the Western Conference. Dončić will have his say, but Boston simply looks too strong to be toppled at the final hurdle.
